Factors and Fire Forecast

The critical factors influencing the fire potential includes expanding drought conditions, snow-pack and warmer than normal forecast temperature. Early snow melt over most of the Western United States can accelerate the drying of timber fuels. As of mid-April 2009, state snow-pack amounts averaged 70-90% of what is normal for Idaho. This also caused early green-up, which starts when the vegetation of possible fire--fuel starts to grow and mature. Early green-up leads to an active and prolonged grassland fire season. Idaho’s 2007 fire season started 6 weeks early, and the 2008 fire season saw a return to a more normal pattern.  For 2009, fire forecasts indicate high amounts of cheatgrass, which will likely be a factor in fire potential throughout the season.  Early predictions are that up to 100,000 acres of rangelands may burn this season (2009).

Useful Links:

National Interagency Fire Center

Morning Report

4-month outlook

National Fire news

Weather

U.S. Forest Service

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